2024 Forecast: Macroeconomic and Microeconomic

1. Global Economic Outlook:

   • Global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.

   • Inflation is expected to fall, with global headline inflation forecasted to be 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025.

   • Risks to global growth are broadly balanced, and the likelihood of a hard landing has receded1.

2. Market Outlook:

   • J.P. Morgan Research forecasts an end to the global expansion by mid-2025.

   • Stubborn inflation is expected to keep rates higher-for-longer.

   • Equity volatility may trade higher in 2024, depending on the timing and severity of an eventual recession2.

3. US Economy Outlook:

   • A mild US recession is expected from mid-2024, with Fed rate cuts.

   • Eurozone and UK GDP may stagnate or experience small contractions following rate hikes3.

4. Other Reports:

   • Capital Economics provides insights into shifts in the global economy, including lower-than-expected economic growth4.

   • abrdn expects a bumpy start to the year for emerging markets due to high rates and geopolitical developments5.